Governance Risk Horizon

Structural governance risks — 138 countries

A diagnostic tool identifying structural conditions associated with governance deterioration or resilience. Seven dimensions scored 0–10 (0 = low risk, 10 = high risk). Five draw on V-Dem 2023 expert assessments of political institutions. A sixth — recency — directly integrates Freedom House 2025, Press Freedom 2025, CPI 2025, and WJP 2025 data to address the 18-month lag in V-Dem. A seventh cross-references Governance Compass trend data. This is a diagnostic instrument, not a forecast.

V-Dem Institute v16 (March 2026, 2023 data)  ·  Freedom House 2025  ·  RSF Press Freedom 2025  ·  Transparency International CPI 2025  ·  WJP Rule of Law 2025  ·  Governance Compass composite trend  ·  Governance Compass  ·  Country profiles
On data recency: V-Dem scores reflect conditions assessed in 2023 and are published with an 18-month lag. The Recency dimension directly addresses this by incorporating 2025 data from Freedom House, RSF, CPI, and WJP — all of which update annually and capture developments through 2024. Countries where 2025 scores have changed significantly from 2023 baselines (such as Israel, Georgia, or Bangladesh) will show elevated recency risk even if V-Dem structural indicators appear stable.
Executive capture
Judicial & legislative constraints; executive & public corruption
20% · V-Dem 2023
Civil society
Civil society participation; freedom of expression; civil liberties
15% · V-Dem 2023
Electoral integrity
Free & fair elections; electoral democracy index
15% · V-Dem 2023
Rule of law
Rule of law; liberal democracy; accountability
15% · V-Dem 2023
V-Dem trend
5-year change in liberal democracy & electoral democracy
10% · V-Dem 2018–23
Recency NEW
FH, RSF, CPI, WJP 2020→2025 change & current level
15% · 2025 data
Index convergence
Compass composite trend, WGI, OBI cross-reference
10% · Compass
138All
0Stable
0Watch
0Elevated
0Critical
0Improving
Region Sort
Country Region Risk score Category Compass FH 2025 Exec. Civil soc. Electoral Rule of law V-Dem trend Recency ★ Conv. Dominant risk